শুক্রবার, ১৪ জুন, ২০১৩

China May Buy European Debt: Is This Good Or Bad ?

In this edition of U-talk ? ?Do you think that the European Union will look to China as a future creditor?? asks Nicola (London).

The response to this question is provided by Gregory Vanel, a Senior Economist and Political Analyst.

?What you?re asking is whether or not European countries would be interested in China financing their public debts. This is a very good question for at least 3 reasons.

First, in the private sector, we see that for the last 5 years, direct Chinese investment in Europe has been increasing strongly. For instance, Chinese investors have bought part of the Port of Piraeus [Athens], and more recently Chinese companies have invested in Club M?d and Eutelsat.

Secondly, Chinese investment would allow some European countries to lower their long term interest rates.

Thirdly, China has enough money to buy a good portion of European countries? debt. China enjoys huge exchange reserves worth 3,300 billion dollars, that is more or less Germany?s GDP.

So, on a technical basis, Chinese investments could indeed help European countries.

Having said that, in the long term, European countries may not be interested in having China buy their debts.

Firstly because China would first and foremost buy debt from the highest rated countries, in particular Germany, France and the UK and China would not necessarily help countries like Greece or Portugal.

But, more importantly, it would imply a very damaging loss of sovereignty [for European countries] because there are at least 3 problems in the relationship between Europe and China:

The first one is about the exchange rate of the yuan which is ?undervalued? for several European countries.

The second point is about China?s growing influence in Africa. On this particular issue, France?s intervention in Mali is clearly meant to stop the growing influence of China.

And the third problem is linked to protectionism, subsidies and what is called dumping by China which harms European companies for instance in the photovoltaic [solar panel] sector?.

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sujet mont? le 23/04/2013 en salle 11 par Caroline et Christelle
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00.00 g?n?rique

10. Question (Woman in English) de Nicola, London :

?Do you think that the European Union will look to China as a creditor for the future ??
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?L?Union europ?enne va-t-elle, ? l?avenir, avoir recours ? la Chine comme bailleur de fonds ??

16. virgule sonore, no talk!

18. R?ponse (man in French) de Gr?gory Vanel, Economiste et politologue / Senior economist and political analyst :

?Vous posez la question de savoir si finalement les pays d?Europe auraient un int?r?t ? demander ? la Chine qu?elle finance une partie de sa dette publique. Alors, ce que l?on peut dire tout d?abord c?est que cette question est pertinente pour au moins 3 raisons.
/
What you want to know it?s whether or not European countries would have an interest in having China finance their public debts. This is a very good question for at least 3 reasons.

32. off
D?abord au niveau priv?, on observe depuis 5 ans une forte mont?e en puissance des investissements directs de la Chine vers l?Europe. Alors par exemple, on sait que le port du Pir?e a ?t? rachet? par des int?r?ts chinois ou plus r?cemment qu?une partie du Club M?d et d?Eutelsat ont ?t? acquis par des soci?t?s chinoises.
/
First of all, in the private sector, we can see that for the last 5 years, direct Chinese investments in Europe have been increasing strongly. For instance, Chinese investors have bought part of the Port of Piraeus (= in Athens), more recently Chinese companies have invested in Club M?d and Eutelsat.

50. on
Deuxi?mement, il est certain que cela permettrait ? certains pays d?Europe de faire baisser leurs taux d?int?r?t ? long terme.
/
Secondly, Chinese investments would allow some European countries to lower their long term interest rates.

57. off
Troisi?mement la Chine a les moyens de racheter une bonne partie de la dette des pays europ?ens, puiqu?elle dispose en gros de r?serves de change de 3.300 milliards de dollars, ce qui correspond en gros au PIB de l?Allemagne.
/
Thirdly, China is ?rich? enough to buy a good part of European countries? debt. China enjoys huge exchange reserves worth 3.300 billion dollars, that is more or less Germany?s GDP (= gross domestic product).

Donc d?un point de vue technique, rien n?emp?che cette solution qui pourrait aider les pays d?Europe.
/
So, on a technical basis, Chinese investments could indeed help European countries.

1.16 on
Cependant ? long terme, les pays europ?ens n?ont pas forc?ment int?r?t ? ce que la Chine rach?te leurs dettes.
D?abord parce que la Chine ach?terait principalement de la dette des pays les mieux not?s, en particulier l?Allemage, la France et le Royaume-Uni et n?aiderait pas forc?ment des pays comme la Gr?ce ou le Portugal.
/
Having said that, on the long term, European countries may not have interest in having China buy their debts. Firstly because China would first and foremost buy the debt from the best rated countries, in particular Germany, France and the UK and China would not necessarily help countries like Greece or Portugal.

1.31 off
Mais surtout parce que cela impliquerait une perte de souverainet? tr?s dommageable (= pour les Etats europ?ens) parce qu?il y a au moins 3 gros dossiers importants qui posent probl?me dans les relations europ?ennes et chinoises : le premier, c?est la question du taux de change du yuan qui est manifestement sous-?valu? pour un certain nombre de pays d?Europe.
/
But above all, that would imply a very damaging loss of sovereignty (= for European countries) because there are at least 3 problematic issues in the relationship between Europe and China : the first one is about the exchange rate of the yuan which is ?underestimated? in several European countries.

Le deuxi?me c?est l?augmentation de l?influence chinoise en Afrique et l?, l?intervention fran?aise au Mali est clairement orient?e pour stoper cette augmentation de l?influence chinoise.
/
The second one is about China?s growing influence in Africa. On this particular issue, France?s intervention in Mali is clearly meant to stop China?s growing influence in Africa.

1.57. on
Et le troisi?me, c?est le probl?me du protectionnisme et d?un certain nombre de subventions, voire de dumping qui est pratiqu? par la Chine au d?triment d?industries en Europe, comme par exemple l?industrie photovolta?que en Europe.?
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And the third problem is linked to protectionism, subsidies and some dumping measures used by China against European companies as for instance in the photovoltaic sector.?

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